Kuo predicts Apple will produce a more cost-effective AR headset in 2025


Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that Apple will release a second augmented reality headset in 2025, this time with improved performance and at a lower price point.

Apple’s first AR headset would be delayed until early 2023, according to Kuo’s latest prediction, but he has also predicted more detailed information regarding its sequel.

In his longer analysis, Kuo provides information about both the first and second generations of Apple AR headsets.

According to him, “The second-generation Apple AR/MR may feature high-end and more affordable models,” and it will launch in the first half of the year 25. Component suppliers will start shipping in the second half of the year 24.

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A new supplier of the Pancake lens for the second-generation Apple AR/MR headset, says Kuo, “and boost manufacturing capacity for this order at its new Taichung facility” are possible possibilities.

As a result of the second-generation Apple AR/MR product segmentation strategy and ecosystem, sales might reach 10 million “as soon as 2025 or 2026,” he adds.

According to Kuo, the pancake lens is the “essential optical component” of the first-generation headset, and it “directly affects” both the visual experience and the form factor design. According to him, this technology will become “a new growth driver for Apple’s optical supply chain” and will be featured in the first headset in the form of two Pancake modules, “one for each eye.”

According to Ming-Chi Kuo’s predictions, Young Optics and Genius will both make pancake lenses. He anticipates that the same businesses will supply the lenses for the next generation of headsets as they did for the current one.

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His prior investor note reports appear to have ended in March 2022, when he began tweeting his predictions. Tweets about his Medium articles, which are longer and more detailed, have been more frequent in recent months.

On social media, the tweets and updates vary between precise information gleaned from the supply chain and the conclusions drawn from prior cycles of production. This latest one appears to be a blend of the two, with information about component makers but more guesswork regarding pricing.

Kuo has not provided any dollar pricing information; instead, he has chosen to just describe the second generation as being “more inexpensive.” Nevertheless, earlier sources have suggested that the initial headgear will be priced at around $2,000.

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